REPLAY - Global LPG Outlook and Trading Day Part 1 - Supply and Demand
ICC | Level: B2 | Room: ÜSKÜDAR 2
Replays
Information
Where will the next wave of LPG supply and demand growth come from, and what will it mean for global markets?
Leading analysts and producers will examine today’s market, the outlook to 2050, and the forces most likely to reshape supply, demand, and trade flows in the years ahead.
Strategic Insights
- Develop a clear understanding of the current global LPG supply, demand balance, and the structural forces influencing trade flows.
- Gain a comprehensive global market view from leading analysist and producers
- Recognise the key market signals and indicators that will shape trade decisions in the near term.
Plenary sessions: Simultaneous interpretation from English to Turkish
Venue
ICC
AI-generated summary
Industry leaders analyze how Middle East supply disruptions, surging US export dominance, and Argentina's Vaca Muerta development are restructuring global LPG trade flows and market dynamics through 2050.
Takeaways
- Middle East Supply Crisis Reshapes Global Flows: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 2.5 million tons of LPG per month from global markets—equivalent to Poland's annual consumption—forcing the US to increase exports by roughly 900,000 tons monthly to fill the gap, particularly for Asian markets.
- US Dominance in Global LPG Trade: The United States has transitioned from a minor player to the world's largest LPG supplier, now accounting for approximately 65% of global seaborne trade (up from 50% pre-conflict), with Mont Belvieu pricing increasingly setting global benchmarks.
- Supply-Driven Market Dynamics: LPG supply is determined by external factors—primarily natural gas production and refining—rather than demand, creating an allocation challenge where available supply must be distributed among residential, commercial, and petrochemical sectors.
- Argentina's Vaca Muerta Emerges as New Supply Hub: Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation, holding the world's second-largest shale gas and fourth-largest shale oil reserves, is projected to produce 7-9 million tons of LPG annually by 2030, offering buyers scale, diversification, and Atlantic Basin market access.
- Infrastructure and Butane Constraints: Critical bottlenecks in export terminal capacity, fractionation, and receiving infrastructure limit market growth, while a structural butane shortage—exacerbated by US gasoline blending demand—threatens residential markets in Africa and Asia that rely on butane-heavy mixes.
Memorable Quotes
- Adrian Calcaneo: We've been brushing our teeth with our left hand for about 10 months... now Indians will be more comfortable than they were before buying from the U.S... that new forced integration in the long term is going to be very beneficial for the market as a whole.
- David Appleton: If I average out those six months, what we get is missing LPG of something like 2.5 million tons per month, which is a lot... more or less exactly the same as the annual consumption of Poland.
- Adrian Calcaneo: Demand does not have any influence on the supply... No matter how much this product is demanded, the amount of supply is decided by external factors from the industry.
- Juan Gimenez: Vaca Muerta combines a world-class resource with improving competitiveness... Argentina has become in the last year in the fastest growing oil and gas producer in the world.
- Rob Donaldson: Every NGL barrel produced next will be going offshore, ethane, propane, butane, C5+, and so that's the direction it's going to go.
